Today's Signal

Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet—Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? leads at 6% with Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? close at 3%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~-28 days
Total Volume
$7.1M
24h Change
+$185K
Active Markets
2
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?
6%
#1 Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?
👥 People watching
●●●●●
High
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Attention and money aligned
Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026?
3%
#2 Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026?
👥 People watching
●●●●●
Medium
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
Low
Quietly backed
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking will khamenei leave iran by.... Each team/candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on teams they believe will win, or NO on teams they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official game results and championship announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on team performance, injuries, playoff standings, odds movements, betting line shifts, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $7.1M shows significant market interest with 12,957 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Ali Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by January 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In cases where Ali Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Ali Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Ali Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Nov 10, 2025
Market Launch
Market opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jan 9, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

As of the latest prediction market data, Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? leads with approximately 6% probability. These odds reflect market sentiment, not polls or official projections.
Each candidate market is a separate YES/NO contract. You can buy YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them. Market inefficiencies, fees, and the possibility of unlisted candidates mean probabilities rarely sum to exactly 100%.
Prices reflect current market belief based on where traders are putting their money. A 28% price means the market currently believes there's a 28% chance of that outcome. Use the Crowd vs Money signals to understand how attention differs from conviction.
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Related Markets

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?6%$797KTrade
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026?3%$165KTrade
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?0%$2.6MTrade
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?0%$2.5MTrade
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16?0%$1.1MTrade
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