Today's Signal

December 31, 2026

Updated: 2 hours ago

December 31, 2026 is ahead at 18% with June 30, 2026 at 3%, but the race is far from settled.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~213 days
Total Volume
$1.5M
24h Change
+$40K
Active Markets
4
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
December 31, 2026
#1 December 31, 2026
18%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
June 30, 2026
#2 June 30, 2026
3%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
High
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking ukraine election called by.... Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $1.5M shows significant market interest with 1,539 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between February 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place in 2025 or later will have no effect on the resolution to this market. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Feb 14, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

December 31, 2026 leads at 18%, with June 30, 2026 at 3% -- a 15-point lead 7 months out. $1.5M has traded across 1,539 positions with 213 days until resolution.
$1.5M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. December 31, 2026's 18% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 18% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Ukraine election called by...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
December 31, 202618%$12KView market
June 30, 20263%$276KView market
December 31, 20250%$983KView market
March 31, 20260%$269KView market
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Go deeper

Basics

What is a prediction market?

Accuracy

Prediction markets vs. polls - who gets it right?

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Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

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