Today's Signal

June 30

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet-June 30 leads at 2% with November 30 close at 0%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~-136 days
Total Volume
$1.3M
24h Change
+$33K
Active Markets
1
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
June 30
#1 June 30
2%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
High
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking will russia capture all of kupiansk by.... Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $1.3M shows significant market interest with 1,334 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png, will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap https://deepstatemap.live/ may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Nov 4, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

June 30 leads at 2%, with November 30 at 0% -- an unusually tight race -- only 2% separates them resolving soon. $1.3M has traded across 1,334 positions with 0 days until resolution.
$1.3M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. June 30's 2% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 2% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?2%-View market
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by November 30?0%-View market
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?0%-View market
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by March 31?0%-View market
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by January 31?0%-View market
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