Today's Signal

Yulia Navalnaya

Updated: 1h ago

The market currently leans toward Yulia Navalnaya at a low 8% probability, with Donald Trump close behind at 7%, and the outcome is far from settled.
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~155 days
Total Volume
$15.8M
24h Change
+$412K
Active Markets
16
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Yulia Navalnaya
#1 Yulia Navalnaya
8%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Donald Trump
#2 Donald Trump
7%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking nobel peace prize winner 2026. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can position themselves based on their expectations. The outcome will be determined based on official economic data releases and central bank announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on economic data releases, central bank communications, inflation reports, and employment figures. Trading volume of $15.8M shows significant market interest with 2,644 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Oct 16, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Oct 10, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

Yulia Navalnaya leads at 8%, with Donald Trump at 7% -- an unusually tight race -- only 1% separates them 5 months out. $15.8M has traded across 2,644 positions with 155 days until resolution.
$15.8M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Yulia Navalnaya's 8% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 8% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?8%-View market
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?7%-View market
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?6%-View market
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?4%-View market
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?4%-View market
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?4%-View market
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