Today's Signal

≤47

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet-≤47 leads at 26% with 49 close at 20%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~0 days
Total Volume
$2.1M
24h Change
+$54K
Active Markets
11
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
≤47
#1 ≤47
26%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
49
#2 49
20%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
54
54✦ Surprise
2%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking republican senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $2.1M shows significant market interest with 37 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Dec 19, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Apr 17, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

≤47 leads at 26%, with 49 at 20% -- a tight race, only 6% separates them resolving soon. $2.1M has traded across 37 positions with 0 days until resolution.
$2.1M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. ≤47's 26% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 26% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?26%-View market
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?20%-View market
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?17%-View market
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?14%-View market
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?13%-View market
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?6%-View market
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