Today's Signal

Flávio Bolsonaro

Updated: 2 hours ago

Traders currently favor Flávio Bolsonaro at 61%, with Renan Santos trailing.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~124 days
Total Volume
$3.6M
24h Change
+$94K
Active Markets
17
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Flávio Bolsonaro
#1 Flávio Bolsonaro
61%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
Renan Santos
#2 Renan Santos
19%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Fernando Haddad
Fernando Haddad✦ Surprise
5%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking brazil presidential election first round: 2nd place. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $3.6M shows significant market interest with 3,616 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Feb 11, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Oct 4, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Flávio Bolsonaro leads at 61%, with Renan Santos at 19% -- a commanding 42-point lead 4 months out. $3.6M has traded across 3,616 positions with 124 days until resolution.
$3.6M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Flávio Bolsonaro's 61% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 61% chance of that outcome -- more likely than not. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Flávio Bolsonaro61%$61KView market
Renan Santos19%$1008KView market
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva9%$75KView market
Fernando Haddad5%$657KView market
Romeu Zema3%$261KView market
Ronaldo Caiado2%$301KView market
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Basics

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Prediction markets vs. polls - who gets it right?

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Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

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