Today's Signal

Byron Donalds

Updated: 2 hours ago

The market strongly favors Byron Donalds at 91%, with a commanding lead over the field.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~80 days
Total Volume
$1.6M
24h Change
+$42K
Active Markets
7
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Byron Donalds
#1 Byron Donalds
91%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
James Fishback
#2 James Fishback
10%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Jay Collins
Jay Collins✦ Surprise
1%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking florida governor republican primary winner. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $1.6M shows significant market interest with 1,600 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Nov 25, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Aug 18, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

Byron Donalds leads at 91%, with James Fishback at 10% -- a commanding 81-point lead 80 days out. $1.6M has traded across 1,600 positions with 80 days until resolution.
$1.6M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. Volume tends to accelerate as resolution approaches and traders adjust positions.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Byron Donalds's 91% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 91% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Byron Donalds91%$127KView market
James Fishback10%$427KView market
Jay Collins1%$717KView market
Casey DeSantis0%$190KView market
Wilton Simpson0%$58KView market
Jimmy Patronis0%$44KView market
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