Today's Signal

Eric Swalwell

Updated: 2h ago

Traders currently favor Eric Swalwell at 60%, with Matt Mahan trailing.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~223 days
Total Volume
$4.4M
24h Change
+$114K
Active Markets
7
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Moneyshows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Eric Swalwell
#1 Eric Swalwell
60%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
Matt Mahan
#2 Matt Mahan
11%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Tom Steyer
Tom Steyer✦ Surprise
7%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks California Governor Election Winner (between Oct 9, 2025 and Nov 3, 2026). It matters because of material impact on outcomes. Market prices tend to move when there are primary sources and credible reporting, deadline proximity and updates.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Oct 9, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Nov 3, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Eric Swalwell leads at 60%, with Matt Mahan at 11% -- a commanding 49-point lead 7 months out. $4.4M has traded across 40 positions with 223 days until resolution.
$4.4M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Eric Swalwell's 60% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 60% chance of that outcome -- more likely than not. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the California Governor Election Winner event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?60%-View market
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?11%-View market
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?8%-View market
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?7%-View market
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026?6%-View market
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?4%-View market
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