Today's Signal

Xavier Becerra

Updated: 17h ago

The market currently leans toward Xavier Becerra at 48%, but with Tom Steyer close behind at 37%, signaling a competitive race in the California Governor Election.
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~178 days
Total Volume
$18.9M
24h Change
+$490K
Active Markets
7
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Xavier Becerra
#1 Xavier Becerra
49%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
Tom Steyer
#2 Tom Steyer
35%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking california governor election winner. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $18.9M shows significant market interest with 734 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Oct 9, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Nov 3, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Xavier Becerra leads at 49%, with Tom Steyer at 35% -- a 14-point lead 6 months out. $18.9M has traded across 734 positions with 178 days until resolution.
$18.9M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Xavier Becerra's 49% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 49% chance of that outcome -- competitive but uncertain. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the California Governor Election Winner event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?49%-View market
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?35%-View market
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?8%-View market
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?2%-View market
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?2%-View market
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?1%-View market
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Accuracy

Prediction markets vs. polls - who gets it right?

Guide

How to read prediction market odds on elections

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Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

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