Today's Signal

Andy Burnham

Updated: 2 hours ago

The market strongly favors Andy Burnham at 85%, with a commanding lead over the field.
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~8 days
Total Volume
$3.1M
24h Change
+$80K
Active Markets
7
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Andy Burnham
#1 Andy Burnham
85%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Robert Kenyon
#2 Robert Kenyon
14%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Rebecca Shepherd
Rebecca Shepherd✦ Surprise
3%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
High
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking makerfield by-election winner. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $3.1M shows significant market interest with 3,070 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council https://www.wigan.gov.uk/.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Apr 19, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jun 18, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

Andy Burnham leads at 85%, with Robert Kenyon at 14% -- a commanding 71-point lead 8 days out. $3.1M has traded across 3,070 positions with 8 days until resolution.
$3.1M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Andy Burnham's 85% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 85% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Makerfield by-election Winner event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Andy Burnham85%$320KView market
Robert Kenyon14%$257KView market
Rebecca Shepherd3%$2465KView market
James Thomas Bryer0%$8KView market
Simon Finkelstein0%$7KView market
John Skipworth0%$7KView market
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Go deeper

Accuracy

Prediction markets vs. polls - who gets it right?

Guide

How to read prediction market odds on elections

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Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

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