Today's Signal

Bert Mizusawa

Updated: 2 hours ago

Bert Mizusawa is ahead at 49% with Kim Farington at 30%, but the race is far from settled.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~31 days
Total Volume
$2.4M
24h Change
+$62K
Active Markets
8
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Bert Mizusawa
#1 Bert Mizusawa
49%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
Kim Farington
#2 Kim Farington
30%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Al Mina
Al Mina✦ Surprise
1%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
High
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking virginia republican senate primary winner. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $2.4M shows significant market interest with 75 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia. If no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Nov 27, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jun 16, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Bert Mizusawa leads at 49%, with Kim Farington at 30% -- a 19-point lead 31 days out. $2.4M has traded across 75 positions with 31 days until resolution.
$2.4M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. Volume tends to accelerate as resolution approaches and traders adjust positions.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Bert Mizusawa's 49% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 49% chance of that outcome -- competitive but uncertain. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?49%-View market
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?30%-View market
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?11%-View market
Will Bryce Reeves be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?4%-View market
Will Alex De Paula be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?2%-View market
Will Chuck Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?2%-View market
Trade on Polymarket →View All Nominee Markets

Go deeper

Accuracy

Prediction markets vs. polls - who gets it right?

Guide

How to read prediction market odds on elections

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Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

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