Today's Signal

Karen Bass

Updated: 2 hours ago

The market strongly favors Karen Bass at 71%, with a commanding lead over the field.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~8 days
Total Volume
$3.0M
24h Change
+$78K
Active Markets
11
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Karen Bass
#1 Karen Bass
71%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Spencer Pratt
#2 Spencer Pratt
22%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
High
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking los angeles mayoral election. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $3.0M shows significant market interest with 3,005 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Oct 9, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jun 2, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

Karen Bass leads at 71%, with Spencer Pratt at 22% -- a commanding 49-point lead 8 days out. $3.0M has traded across 3,005 positions with 8 days until resolution.
$3.0M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Karen Bass's 71% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 71% chance of that outcome -- more likely than not. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Los Angeles Mayoral Election event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Karen Bass71%$123KView market
Spencer Pratt22%$1305KView market
Nithya Raman8%$162KView market
Rae Huang0%$483KView market
Rick Caruso0%$467KView market
Adam Miller0%$157KView market
Trade on Polymarket →View All Nominee Markets

Go deeper

Accuracy

Prediction markets vs. polls - who gets it right?

Guide

How to read prediction market odds on elections

Legal

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Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

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