Today's Signal

Karen Bass

Updated: 2 hours ago

Traders currently favor Karen Bass at 64%, with Nithya Raman trailing.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~159 days
Total Volume
$13.0M
24h Change
+$339K
Active Markets
11
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Karen Bass
#1 Karen Bass
64%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
Nithya Raman
#2 Nithya Raman
37%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking los angeles mayoral election. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can position themselves based on their expectations. The outcome will be determined based on official economic data releases and central bank announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on economic data releases, central bank communications, inflation reports, and employment figures. Trading volume of $13.0M shows significant market interest with 13,021 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Nov 1, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Karen Bass leads at 64%, with Nithya Raman at 37% -- a commanding 27-point lead 5 months out. $13.0M has traded across 13,021 positions with 159 days until resolution.
$13.0M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Karen Bass's 64% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 64% chance of that outcome -- more likely than not. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Los Angeles Mayoral Election event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Karen Bass64%$707KView market
Nithya Raman37%$1169KView market
Spencer Pratt0%$7858KView market
Lindsey Horvath0%$1687KView market
Rae Huang0%$523KView market
Rick Caruso0%$495KView market
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