Today's Signal

Karen Bass

Updated: 2 hours ago

Traders currently favor Karen Bass at 56%, with Spencer Pratt trailing.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~16 days
Total Volume
$2.2M
24h Change
+$57K
Active Markets
5
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Karen Bass
#1 Karen Bass
56%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
Spencer Pratt
#2 Spencer Pratt
23%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
Rae Huang
Rae Huang✦ Surprise
1%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking los angeles mayoral election. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $2.2M shows significant market interest with 66 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Oct 9, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jun 2, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

Karen Bass leads at 56%, with Spencer Pratt at 23% -- a commanding 33-point lead 16 days out. $2.2M has traded across 66 positions with 16 days until resolution.
$2.2M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Karen Bass's 56% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 56% chance of that outcome -- competitive but uncertain. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Los Angeles Mayoral Election event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?56%-View market
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?23%-View market
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?16%-View market
Will Rae Huang win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?1%-View market
Will Adam Miller win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?1%-View market
Will Asaad Alnajjar win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?0%-View market
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Go deeper

Accuracy

Prediction markets vs. polls - who gets it right?

Guide

How to read prediction market odds on elections

Legal

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Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

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