Today's Signal

Andy Burnham

Updated: 2 hours ago

Traders currently favor Andy Burnham at 57%, with No Next PM in 2026 trailing.
0%
New to prediction markets?
📊

Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~228 days
Total Volume
$7.2M
24h Change
+$188K
Active Markets
9
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Andy Burnham
#1 Andy Burnham
57%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
No Next PM in 2026
#2 No Next PM in 2026
13%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Nigel Farage
Nigel Farage✦ Surprise
1%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
📚

Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking next uk prime minister in 2026. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $7.2M shows significant market interest with 293 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Feb 5, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

💭
No analyst takes yet

Be the first to share your analysis on this market.

✍️ Submit Your Take

Frequently Asked Questions

Andy Burnham leads at 57%, with No Next PM in 2026 at 13% -- a commanding 44-point lead 8 months out. $7.2M has traded across 293 positions with 228 days until resolution.
$7.2M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Andy Burnham's 57% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 57% chance of that outcome -- competitive but uncertain. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
📈

View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Next UK Prime Minister in 2026? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?57%-View market
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?13%-View market
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?11%-View market
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?10%-View market
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?7%-View market
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?2%-View market
Trade on Polymarket →View All Nominee Markets

Go deeper

Accuracy

Prediction markets vs. polls - who gets it right?

Guide

How to read prediction market odds on elections

Legal

Are prediction markets legal?

Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

Trade on PolymarketCompare Platforms