Today's Signal

No Next PM in 2026

Updated: 12h ago

No Next PM in 2026 is ahead at 44% with Angela Rayner at 21%, but the race is far from settled.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~258 days
Total Volume
$4.7M
24h Change
+$121K
Active Markets
13
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
No Next PM in 2026
#1 No Next PM in 2026
37%
Widely followed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Angela Rayner
#2 Angela Rayner
21%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Nigel Farage
Nigel Farage✦ Surprise
3%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking next uk prime minister in 2026. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $4.7M shows significant market interest with 205 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Feb 5, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

No Next PM in 2026 leads at 37%, with Angela Rayner at 21% -- a 16-point lead 9 months out. $4.7M has traded across 205 positions with 258 days until resolution.
$4.7M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. No Next PM in 2026's 37% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 37% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Next UK Prime Minister in 2026? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?37%-View market
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?21%-View market
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?7%-View market
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?7%-View market
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?3%-View market
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?3%-View market
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