Today's Signal

Steve Bannon

Updated: 2026-03-02T00:02:34.787Z

The market is split, with Steve Bannon currently leading at 26%, and Richard Branson close behind at 22%, indicating a competitive and unsettled race.
0%
📊

Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~120 days
Total Volume
$610K
24h Change
+$15.9K
Active Markets
18
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Steve Bannon
#1 Steve Bannon
26%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Richard Branson
#2 Richard Branson
22%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Bill Clinton
Bill Clinton✦ Surprise
18%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
📚

Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking who visited epstein's island. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $610K shows significant market interest with 12 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if evidence is made public confirming that the listed individual previously visited Little St. James by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes but is not limited to flight logs, photographs, videos, court records, or sworn testimony that clearly place the listed individual on the island. Public confirmation from the listed individual that they visited Little St. James will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution. If any release of Epstein-related files is carried out by the United States federal government within 48 hours of this market's resolution time, this market will remain open for 48 hours after the resolution time to allow for evidence of visits to Little St. James to be investigated. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Feb 12, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jun 30, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

💭
No analyst takes yet

Be the first to share your analysis on this market.

✍️ Submit Your Take

Frequently Asked Questions

Steve Bannon leads at 26%, with Richard Branson at 22% -- an unusually tight race -- only 4% separates them 4 months out. $610K has traded across 12 positions with 120 days until resolution.
$610K total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Steve Bannon's 26% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 26% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
📈

View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Who visited Epstein's Island? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?26%—View market
Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?22%—View market
Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?19%—View market
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?18%—View market
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?17%—View market
Will Noam Chomsky be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?17%—View market
Trade on Polymarket →View All Nominee Markets

Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

Trade on PolymarketCompare Platforms