Today's Signal

Richard Branson

Updated: 6h ago

The market strongly leans toward Richard Branson at 99%, though outcomes remain uncertain.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~75 days
Total Volume
$1.8M
24h Change
+$46K
Active Markets
18
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Richard Branson
#1 Richard Branson
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Steven Tisch
#2 Steven Tisch
16%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Jay-Z
Jay-Z✦ Surprise
3%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking who visited epstein's island. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $1.8M shows significant market interest with 77 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if evidence is made public confirming that the listed individual previously visited Little St. James by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes but is not limited to flight logs, photographs, videos, court records, or sworn testimony that clearly place the listed individual on the island. Public confirmation from the listed individual that they visited Little St. James will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution. If any release of Epstein-related files is carried out by the United States federal government within 48 hours of this market's resolution time, this market will remain open for 48 hours after the resolution time to allow for evidence of visits to Little St. James to be investigated. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Feb 12, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jun 30, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

Richard Branson leads at 100%, with Steven Tisch at 16% -- a commanding 84-point lead 75 days out. $1.8M has traded across 77 positions with 75 days until resolution.
$1.8M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. Volume tends to accelerate as resolution approaches and traders adjust positions.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Richard Branson's 100% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 100% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Who visited Epstein's Island? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?100%-View market
Will Steven Tisch be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?16%-View market
Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?11%-View market
Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?11%-View market
Will Deepak Chopra be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?11%-View market
Will Noam Chomsky be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?8%-View market
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