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Volume

$120.9M

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Strong consensus forming

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?60%

Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?16%

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?13%

US next strikes Iran on...?

Strong consensus forming

Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?99%

Will the US next strike Iran in January 2026 (ET)?1%

Will the US next strike Iran on February 2, 2026 (ET)?1%

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (8% vs 4%)

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (16% vs 11%)

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?14%

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?2%

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?1%

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?69%

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?66%

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?60%

US x Iran ceasefire by...?

Balanced market conditions

US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?76%

US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?68%

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?58%

Next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Balanced market conditions

Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?17%

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?13%

Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?13%

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (50% vs 48%)

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (9% vs 3%)

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (41% vs 37%)

Will Trump meet with Putin again by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026?3%

Will Trump meet with Putin by August 31?1%

Will Trump meet with Putin by September 30?1%

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?89%

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?79%

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?51%

Will US or Israel strike Iran first?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (50% vs 47%)

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (9% vs 1%)

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?31%

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?23%

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?6%

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

Strong consensus forming

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?37%

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026?23%

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31?1%

US forces enter Iran by..?

Strong consensus forming

US forces enter Iran by December 31?45%

US forces enter Iran by March 31?30%

US forces enter Iran by March 14?15%

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?6%

Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?1%

Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by March 31, 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (10% vs 2%)

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (20% vs 15%)

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

Strong consensus forming

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?14%

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?5%

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2025?1%

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?

Balanced market conditions

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of March?99%

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?88%

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?69%

New Supreme Leader of Iran by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?81%

Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?64%

Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?27%

Ukraine election held by...?

Strong consensus forming

Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?24%

Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?12%

Ukraine election held by December 31, 2025?1%

Russian strike on Poland by...?

Strong consensus forming

Russian strike on Poland by June 30?4%

Russian strike on Poland by September 30?1%

Russian strike on Poland by December 31?1%

Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

Strong consensus forming

Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?17%

Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?7%

Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025?1%

Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?88%

Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?74%

Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026?41%

Russian strike on a NATO member by...?

Strong consensus forming

Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31?4%

Russian strike on a NATO member by October 31?1%

Russian strike on a NATO member by December 31?1%

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?

Strong consensus forming

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?28%

Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?7%

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?1%

Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality on...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 3, 2026?99%

Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 12, 2026?99%

Will Russia strike Kyiv on March 31, 2026?13%

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (14% vs 10%)

US strike on Cuba by...?

Strong consensus forming

US strike on Cuba by December 31?35%

US strike on Cuba by March 31?6%

US strike on Cuba by January 31?1%

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?36%

Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?25%

Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?17%

Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?

Strong consensus forming

Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?26%

Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?4%

Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?1%

Xi Jinping out by June 30?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (7% vs 4%)

Ukraine election called by...?

Strong consensus forming

Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?21%

Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026?3%

Ukraine election called in 2025?1%

Will Russia capture Rodynske by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?54%

Will Russia capture Rodynske by September 15?1%

Will Russia capture Rodynske by September 30?1%

US strike on Colombia by...?

Strong consensus forming

US strike on Colombia by December 31?17%

US strike on Colombia by March 31?2%

US strike on Colombia by January 31?1%

US forces enter Venezuela again by...?

Strong consensus forming

US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?21%

US forces in Venezuela again by March 31, 2026?21%

US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?1%

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?17%

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by November 30?1%

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?1%

Maduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by...?

Strong consensus forming

Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?12%

Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026?1%

Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026?1%

Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit __ by March 31?

Strong consensus forming

Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31?2%

Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 50% by March 31?2%

Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (12% vs 4%)

U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by...?

Strong consensus forming

U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?20%

U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?7%

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (6% vs 1%)

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?

Balanced market conditions

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?79%

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?70%

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?37%

Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?

Balanced market conditions

Will Israel join the Board of Peace?99%

Will Turkiye join the Board of Peace?99%

Will Hungary join the Board of Peace?99%

Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by April 30, 2026?36%

Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by March 31, 2026?16%

Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by February 28, 2026?1%

Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (63% vs 61%)

Nuclear weapon detonation by...?

Balanced market conditions

Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31?24%

Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30?15%

Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31?5%

Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31?13%

Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by November 30?1%

Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?1%

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Strong consensus forming

Israel x Syria security agreement by...?

Strong consensus forming

Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?23%

Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31?9%

Israel x Syria security agreement by September 30?1%

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

Balanced market conditions

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (5% vs 1%)

US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (18% vs 12%)

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

Balanced market conditions

Which cities will Russia enter by June 30?

Balanced market conditions

Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?56%

Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?26%

Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?22%

Will Russia capture Sumy by...?

Balanced market conditions

Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?13%

Will Russia capture Sumy before October?1%

Will Russia capture Sumy by December 31?1%

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?

Strong consensus forming

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?19%

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?16%

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

Balanced market conditions

Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?75%

Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027?4%

Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027?4%

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Balanced market conditions

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (29% vs 26%)

Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?58%

Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?1%

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

Balanced market conditions

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (15% vs 8%)

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?40%

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by March 31?4%

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by November 30?1%

Israel strike on Yemen by...?

Strong consensus forming

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?78%

Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?73%

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Balanced market conditions

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (14% vs 12%)

Will Trump declare war on Iran by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?13%

Will Trump declare war on Iran by February 28, 2026?1%

Netanyahu out by...?

Balanced market conditions

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?33%

Netanyahu out by June 30?13%

Netanyahu out by March 31?9%

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (8% vs 3%)

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?19%

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?1%

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by October 31?1%

U.S. nuclear test by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?2%

Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by November 30 2025?1%

Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2025?1%

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Balanced market conditions

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (47% vs 45%)

U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...?

Strong consensus forming

U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026?39%

U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by December 31, 2025?1%

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Balanced market conditions

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (25% vs 22%)

Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?

Strong consensus forming

Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?20%

Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?1%

Will any country leave NATO by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?4%

Will any country leave NATO in 2025?1%

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (19% vs 16%)

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Balanced market conditions

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (50% vs 46%)

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Balanced market conditions

Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?39%

Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?34%

Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027?21%

Masoud Pezeshkian out by...?

Balanced market conditions

Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?67%

Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?61%

Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31?41%

Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?

Balanced market conditions

Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026?3%

Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by March 31, 2026?1%

Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?

Balanced market conditions

Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?86%

Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026?80%

Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?63%