Today's Signal

Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i

Updated: 2026-03-03T12:00:47.816Z

No clear favorite yet—Alireza Arafi leads at 22% with Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i close at 17%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
📊

Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~303 days
Total Volume
$7.1M
24h Change
+$183K
Active Markets
12
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i
#1 Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i
17%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Position abolished
#2 Position abolished
16%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Mojtaba Khamenei
Mojtaba Khamenei✦ Surprise
6%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
📚

Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking next supreme leader of iran. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $7.1M shows significant market interest with 311 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓The Supreme Leader of Iran is chosen by the Assembly of Experts. This market will resolve according to the person who is named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei. Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market. If Ali Khamenei remains the Supreme Leader of Iran or the next Supreme Leader of Iran is not officially announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None by June 30”. If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “Position abolished”. Only individuals formally appointed to the office titled “Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran” (or a clearly direct constitutional equivalent replacing that title) will qualify. Individuals serving solely as President, head of state, head of government, or in any other role that is not explicitly the Supreme Leader or a direct constitutional equivalent will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Feb 28, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

💭
No analyst takes yet

Be the first to share your analysis on this market.

✍️ Submit Your Take

Frequently Asked Questions

Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i leads at 17%, with Position abolished at 16% -- an unusually tight race -- only 1% separates them 10 months out. $7.1M has traded across 311 positions with 303 days until resolution.
$7.1M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i's 17% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 17% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
📈

View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Next Supreme Leader of Iran? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?17%—View market
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?16%—View market
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?14%—View market
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?9%—View market
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?9%—View market
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?6%—View market
Trade on Polymarket →View All Nominee Markets

Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

Trade on PolymarketCompare Platforms