Today's Signal

December 31, 2026

Updated: 2026-03-02T00:01:40.142Z

December 31, 2026 is ahead at 17% with June 30, 2026 at 7%, but the race is far from settled.
0%
📊

Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~-61 days
Total Volume
$1.7M
24h Change
+$44K
Active Markets
2
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
December 31, 2026
#1 December 31, 2026
17%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
June 30, 2026
#2 June 30, 2026
7%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
📚

Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks Israel and Syria normalize relations by...? (between Jun 2, 2025 and Dec 31, 2026). It matters because of material impact on outcomes. Market prices tend to move when there are primary sources and credible reporting, deadline proximity and updates.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jun 2, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

💭
No analyst takes yet

Be the first to share your analysis on this market.

✍️ Submit Your Take

Frequently Asked Questions

December 31, 2026 leads at 17%, with June 30, 2026 at 7% -- a 10-point lead resolving soon. $1.7M has traded across 4,186 positions with 0 days until resolution.
$1.7M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. December 31, 2026's 17% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 17% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
📈

View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Israel and Syria normalize relations by...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?17%—View market
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?7%—View market
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025?0%—View market
Trade on Polymarket →View All Nominee Markets

Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

Trade on PolymarketCompare Platforms