Today's Signal

March 31

Updated: 2026-03-02T00:01:42.118Z

No clear favorite yet—March 31 leads at 3% with October 31 close at 1%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
📊

Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~-122 days
Total Volume
$1.6M
24h Change
+$42K
Active Markets
1
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
March 31
#1 March 31
5%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
High
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
📚

Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks whether a military strike occurs between Sep 23, 2025 and Mar 31, 2026. It matters because of material impact on outcomes and regional escalation and stability. Market prices tend to move when there are primary sources and credible reporting, military surveillance and intelligence.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the sovereign territory of any NATO member state or on any official embassy or consulate of a NATO member state between September 24 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact the ground territory of a NATO member state or an official embassy/consulate of a NATO member (e.g., if a weapons depot on NATO territory is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted (i.e., do not impact) and surface-to-air missile launches will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris falls on NATO territory or causes damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes conducted directly by ground operatives, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Sep 24, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Oct 31, 2025
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

💭
No analyst takes yet

Be the first to share your analysis on this market.

✍️ Submit Your Take

Frequently Asked Questions

March 31 leads at 5%, with October 31 at 0% -- a tight race, only 5% separates them resolving soon. $1.6M has traded across 795 positions with 0 days until resolution.
$1.6M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. March 31's 5% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 5% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
📈

View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Russian strike on a NATO member by...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31?5%—View market
Russian strike on a NATO member by October 31?0%—View market
Russian strike on a NATO member by December 31?0%—View market
Trade on Polymarket →View All Nominee Markets

Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

Trade on PolymarketCompare Platforms