Today's Signal

March 31

Updated: 2026-03-02T00:01:51.871Z

The market currently favors March 31 at 49%, with no runaway favorite, signaling a competitive race that is not yet settled.
0%
📊

Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~-168 days
Total Volume
$1.3M
24h Change
+$35K
Active Markets
1
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
March 31
#1 March 31
48%
Quietly backed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
High
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
📚

Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks whether Russia capture Rodynske by...? (between Aug 21, 2025 and Mar 31, 2026). It matters because of material impact on outcomes. Market prices tend to move when there are primary sources and credible reporting, deadline proximity and updates.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection between T-05-15 and Shakhtarskoi Slavy vulytsia located in Rodyns'ke by September 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. The intersection station will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by September 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/rodynske+intersection+zoom.png Intersection Location in Rodyns'ke: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/rodynske+intersection.png Rodyns'ke location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/rodynske.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/oFYUB5RUaKXaPvVT9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap https://deepstatemap.live/ may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Aug 21, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Sep 15, 2025
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

💭
No analyst takes yet

Be the first to share your analysis on this market.

✍️ Submit Your Take

Frequently Asked Questions

March 31 leads at 48%, with September 15 at 0% -- a commanding 48-point lead resolving soon. $1.3M has traded across 343 positions with 0 days until resolution.
$1.3M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. March 31's 48% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 48% chance of that outcome -- competitive but uncertain. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
📈

View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Will Russia capture Rodynske by...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?48%—View market
Will Russia capture Rodynske by September 15?0%—View market
Will Russia capture Rodynske by September 30?0%—View market
Will Russia capture Rodynske by October 31?0%—View market
Will Russia capture Rodynske by November 30?0%—View market
Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31?0%—View market
Trade on Polymarket →View All Nominee Markets

Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

Trade on PolymarketCompare Platforms