Today's Signal

March 31

Updated: 2026-03-03T12:01:06.043Z

Traders currently favor March 31 at 77%, with March 15 trailing.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~28 days
Total Volume
$2.0M
24h Change
+$51K
Active Markets
7
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
March 31
#1 March 31
75%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
March 15
#2 March 15
63%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
March 6
March 6✦ Surprise
30%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking new supreme leader of iran by.... Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $2.0M shows significant market interest with 444 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Feb 28, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Mar 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

💭
No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

March 31 leads at 75%, with March 15 at 63% -- a 12-point lead 28 days out. $2.0M has traded across 444 positions with 28 days until resolution.
$2.0M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. March 31's 75% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 75% chance of that outcome -- more likely than not. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the New Supreme Leader of Iran by...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?75%—View market
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?63%—View market
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?34%—View market
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?30%—View market
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?18%—View market
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?13%—View market
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