Today's Signal

February 3

Updated: 2026-03-03T00:01:34.273Z

No clear favorite yet—February 3 leads at 99% with February 12 close at 99%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
📊

Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~-3 days
Total Volume
$1.5M
24h Change
+$40K
Active Markets
3
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
February 3
#1 February 3
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Medium
February 12
#2 February 12
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Medium
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
📚

Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks whether a military strike occurs between Jan 27, 2026 and Feb 28, 2026. It matters because of material impact on outcomes and regional escalation and stability. Market prices tend to move when there are primary sources and credible reporting, military surveillance and intelligence.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Armed Forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Kyiv municipality on the listed date Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian Armed Forces that impact Kyiv municipality's ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Kyiv municipality counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the Kyiv municipality's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Russian armed forces will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Ukrainian or Russian), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jan 27, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Feb 28, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

💭
No analyst takes yet

Be the first to share your analysis on this market.

✍️ Submit Your Take

Frequently Asked Questions

February 3 leads at 100%, with February 12 at 100% -- an unusually tight race -- only 0% separates them resolving soon. $1.5M has traded across 406 positions with 0 days until resolution.
$1.5M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. February 3's 100% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 100% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
📈

View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality on...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 3, 2026?100%—View market
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 12, 2026?100%—View market
Will Russia strike Kyiv on March 31, 2026?12%—View market
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 18, 2026?0%—View market
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 19, 2026?0%—View market
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 22, 2026?0%—View market
Trade on Polymarket →View All Nominee Markets

Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

Trade on PolymarketCompare Platforms