Today's Signal

December 31

Updated: 2 hours ago

Traders currently favor December 31 at 50%, with March 31 trailing.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~0 days
Total Volume
$3.5M
24h Change
+$92K
Active Markets
5
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
December 31
#1 December 31
50%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
March 31
#2 March 31
30%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
March 3
March 3✦ Surprise
1%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking us forces enter iran by... Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $3.5M shows significant market interest with 2,858 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jan 11, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Mar 3, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

December 31 leads at 50%, with March 31 at 30% -- a commanding 20-point lead resolving soon. $3.5M has traded across 2,858 positions with 0 days until resolution.
$3.5M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. December 31's 50% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 50% chance of that outcome -- competitive but uncertain. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the US forces enter Iran by..? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
US forces enter Iran by December 31?50%—View market
US forces enter Iran by March 31?30%—View market
US forces enter Iran by March 14?15%—View market
US forces enter Iran by March 7?8%—View market
US forces enter Iran by March 3?1%—View market
US forces enter Iran by January 31?0%—View market
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