Today's Signal

June 30, 2026

Updated: 2026-03-03T00:01:26.898Z

No clear favorite yet—June 30, 2026 leads at 4% with September 30 close at 1%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~-154 days
Total Volume
$1.9M
24h Change
+$49K
Active Markets
1
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
June 30, 2026
#1 June 30, 2026
4%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
High
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks whether a military strike occurs between Sep 9, 2025 and Dec 31, 2025. It matters because of material impact on outcomes and regional escalation and stability. Market prices tend to move when there are primary sources and credible reporting, military surveillance and intelligence.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 9 PM ET and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Sep 9, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Sep 30, 2025
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

June 30, 2026 leads at 4%, with September 30 at 0% -- an unusually tight race -- only 4% separates them resolving soon. $1.9M has traded across 8,316 positions with 0 days until resolution.
$1.9M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. June 30, 2026's 4% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 4% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Russian strike on Poland by...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Russian strike on Poland by June 30?4%—View market
Russian strike on Poland by September 30?0%—View market
Russian strike on Poland by December 31?0%—View market
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