World · Geopolitics

U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by...?LIVE

The market expects June 30 to be the date of the U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico, but with low odds of 20%, the outcome is highly uncertain. $1.4M traded with 0 days remaining. Moderate activity suggests the market is still adjusting its expectations.

See how prediction markets are pricing the race ↓

Today's Signal

June 30

Updated: 1h ago

June 30 is ahead at 17% with March 31 at 1%, but the race is far from settled.

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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon

~-17 days

Total Volume

$1.4M

24h Change

+$38K

Active Markets

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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal

Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?

More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.

#1 June 30

17%

Quietly backed

People watching

Low

Money behind it

High

Includes both YES and NO positions
Not investment advice
Visuals are comparative, not exact

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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking u.s. anti-cartel ground operation in mexico by.... Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $1.4M shows significant market interest with 6,789 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).

2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.

3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.

4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participates on the ground in an anti-cartel operation on Mexican soil by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation which is either confirmed by the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government, however an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.

⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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Updates & analysis

Key dates and timeline
Expert takes and analysis
Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jan 31, 2026

Event Launch

Event opened and became active.

Ongoing

Active Trading

Market is live with continuous price updates.

Mar 31, 2026

Resolution Date

Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is currently leading in U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by...?

June 30 leads at 17%, with March 31 at 0% -- a 17-point lead resolving soon. $1.4M has traded across 6,789 positions with 0 days until resolution.

How much money is behind these odds?

$1.4M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.

How do I read these odds?

Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. June 30's 17% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 17% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.

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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by...? event.

Candidate Market	Yes %	Liquidity
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?	17%	-	View market
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?	0%	-	View market

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