Today's Signal

June 30

Updated: 2026-03-02T00:02:26.972Z

June 30 is ahead at 28% with March 31 at 10%, but the race is far from settled.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~-153 days
Total Volume
$717K
24h Change
+$18.6K
Active Markets
2
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
June 30
#1 June 30
28%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
March 31
#2 March 31
10%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking israel x syria security agreement by.... Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $717K shows significant market interest with 1,179 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states. Ceasefire announcements or other announced de-escalations such as those relating to the July 16-18 skirmishes with the Druze, or any other future military engagements, which do not address the broader security relationship will not qualify. Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a formalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, an agreement which is announced by only of the parties will qualify if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that such a formal agreement has been reached.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Aug 26, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Sep 30, 2025
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

June 30 leads at 28%, with March 31 at 10% -- a 18-point lead resolving soon. $717K has traded across 1,179 positions with 0 days until resolution.
$717K total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. June 30's 28% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 28% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Israel x Syria security agreement by...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?28%—View market
Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31?10%—View market
Israel x Syria security agreement by September 30?0%—View market
Israel x Syria security agreement by December 31?0%—View market
Israel x Syria security agreement by October 31?0%—View market
Israel x Syria security agreement by November 30?0%—View market
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