Today's Signal

June 30

Updated: 15h ago

No clear favorite yet-June 30 leads at 28% with May 31 close at 23%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~74 days
Total Volume
$1.6M
24h Change
+$42K
Active Markets
3
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
June 30
#1 June 30
30%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
May 31
#2 May 31
23%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
April 30
April 30✦ Surprise
13%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking israel military action against yemen by.... Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $1.6M shows significant market interest with 435 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jan 6, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jun 30, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

June 30 leads at 30%, with May 31 at 23% -- a tight race, only 7% separates them 74 days out. $1.6M has traded across 435 positions with 74 days until resolution.
$1.6M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. Volume tends to accelerate as resolution approaches and traders adjust positions.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. June 30's 30% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 30% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Israel military action against Yemen by...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?30%-View market
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?23%-View market
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?13%-View market
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?0%-View market
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?0%-View market
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