Who is currently leading in China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

NO holds at 99% 32 days out. $2.0M has traded, suggesting overwhelming conviction from the market with 32 days remaining.

How much money is behind these odds?

$2.0M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. Volume tends to accelerate as resolution approaches and traders adjust positions.

How do I read these odds?

This is a binary YES/NO market. NO's 99% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 99% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.

Tech Prediction Markets

Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

LIVE

1% YES

↑ 0.0% (24h)·Last updated: 2 hours ago

As of August 30, 2026, This market leads at 1% odds with $2.0M positioned by 2,026 trades and resolves October 2026.

Market Snapshot

Resolution Date

Oct 2026

Total Volume

$2.0M

Status

Live

Winner / Leader

No (99%)

This market resolves YES if china invade taiwan by september 30, 2026.

Data Visualization

WHERE THE MONEY FLOWS

$20K staked

Market predicts YES

99%

$2.01M staked

Market predicts NO

Liquidity

$119K

24h Change

+0.0%

Average Trade

$1K

Total Volume

$2.03M

💭

Our Take

Updated Recently

Market strongly favors NO at 99% odds. As of 8/30/2026, this market has $2.0M traded and 2,026 traders.

Trade on Polymarket →

📰

Latest News

AI-curated articles

Loading news articles...

🔍

Deeper Dives

Expert analysis

Similar Markets You Might Like

Compare Platforms

Polymarket1%

KalshiTBD

PredictItTBD

Additional platforms coming soon

Trade on Polymarket

Kalshi (Soon)

Market Confidence

LOW

Score: 34/100

$2.0M traded · Deep liquidity

WHERE THE MONEY FLOWS

Our Take

Latest News

Deeper Dives

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Fed Decision in September?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Resolution Rules