Today's Signal

Donald Trump

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet — Donald Trump leads at 100% with Shehbaz Sharif close at 100%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~15 days
Total Volume
$2.0M
24h Change
+$51K
Active Markets
20
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Donald Trump
#1 Donald Trump
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Shehbaz Sharif
#2 Shehbaz Sharif
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
JD Vance
JD Vance✦ Surprise
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking who will sign u.s. x iran deal. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $2.0M shows significant market interest with 1,956 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jun 2, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Aug 1, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Donald Trump leads at 100%, with Shehbaz Sharif at 100% -- an unusually tight race -- only 0% separates them 15 days out. $2.0M has traded across 1,956 positions with 15 days until resolution.
$2.0M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Donald Trump's 100% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 100% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Donald Trump100%$130KView market
Shehbaz Sharif100%$115KView market
JD Vance100%$102KView market
Masoud Pezeshkian100%$81KView market
Mohammed bin Salman3%$175KView market
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf2%$203KView market
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