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🟣 tech

Volume

$16.0M

Which companies will be acquired before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Will iRobot be acquired before 2027?99%

Will Warner Bros. Discovery be acquired before 2027?99%

Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?66%

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?99%

Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?99%

Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?95%

How much revenue will the U.S. raise from tariffs in 2025?

Strong consensus forming

Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?84%

Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?11%

Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?6%

IPOs before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Once Upon a Farm IPO before 2027?99%

Wealthfront IPO before 2027?99%

Discord IPO before 2027?92%

Which company has the best AI model end of February?

Balanced market conditions

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?91%

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?5%

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?2%

Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?

Strong consensus forming

AI bubble burst by...?

Strong consensus forming

AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?19%

AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026?4%

AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2025?1%

Human moon landing in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (8% vs 6%)

What will SpaceX's public ticker be?

Strong consensus forming

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?77%

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?5%

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?5%

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap

Balanced market conditions

Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?86%

Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?7%

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on IPO day?2%

Which company has the best AI model end of March?

Balanced market conditions

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?85%

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?5%

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?4%

How high will Polymarket's mindshare go?

Strong consensus forming

Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75%?99%

Will Polymarket mindshare hit 70%?99%

Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80%?22%

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

Balanced market conditions

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?47%

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?15%

Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?10%

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Strong consensus forming

Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?38%

Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?28%

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?14%

GPT ads by...?

Strong consensus forming

GPT ads by March 31?94%

GPT ads by December 31?1%

GPT ads by January 31?1%

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?

Strong consensus forming

Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?50%

Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?19%

Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?14%

OpenAI IPO by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?52%

Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?5%

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2025?1%

Who will acquire TikTok?

Strong consensus forming

Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?99%

Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?5%

Will AppLovin acquire TikTok?4%

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

Strong consensus forming

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?74%

Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?67%

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?61%

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Balanced market conditions

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?7%

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?2%

Claude 5 released by…?

Strong consensus forming

Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?84%

Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?51%

Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?10%

January 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Strong consensus forming

Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?48%

Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026?40%

Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?8%

Which company has best AI model end of June?

Balanced market conditions

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?69%

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?12%

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?11%

2nd Largest company end of February?

Balanced market conditions

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?41%

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?39%

Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?21%

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Balanced market conditions

Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?33%

Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?25%

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?22%

Grok 4.20 released by...?

Strong consensus forming

Grok 4.20 released by April 20?97%

Grok 4.20 released by March 31?91%

Grok 4.20 released by February 28?48%

Next CEO of Apple?

Strong consensus forming

Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?69%

Will Sabih Khan be the next CEO of Apple?14%

Will Craig Federighi be the next CEO of Apple?12%

How many Tornadoes in the US in January?

Strong consensus forming

Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?99%

Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?1%

Will 60 to 89 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?1%

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?30%

Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?24%

Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?23%

Largest Company end of December 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?40%

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?31%

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?20%

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027?

Balanced market conditions

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (6% vs 4%)

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

Balanced market conditions

Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?92%

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day?3%

Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day?3%

2nd largest company end of March?

Balanced market conditions

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?38%

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?35%

Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?25%

2026 January 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Balanced market conditions

Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?99%

Will January 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?1%

Will January 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?1%

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

Balanced market conditions

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?86%

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?74%

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?52%

How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 202673%

Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 202614%

Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q1 20266%

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Balanced market conditions

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (10% vs 4%)

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (30% vs 26%)

Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (28% vs 25%)

What will be said on the next All-In Podcast? (January 23)

Strong consensus forming

Will "Davos" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?96%

Will "MAGA" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?94%

Will "Greenland" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?91%

Which company's AI will first hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30?

Balanced market conditions

Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?67%

Will no company have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?15%

Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?8%

Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO?

Balanced market conditions

Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?71%

Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?10%

Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?10%

NASA Artemis II

Balanced market conditions

Will Artemis II launch by April 30?82%

Will Artemis II launch by March 31?42%

Will Artemis II explode?8%

Which CEOs will be out before 2027?

Balanced market conditions

Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?36%

Dan Clancy out as Twitch CEO before 2027?24%

Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?19%

Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (74% vs 69%)

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?57%

Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?22%

Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?8%

Discord IPO Closing Market Cap

Balanced market conditions

Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day?34%

Will Discord’s market cap be between $15B and $20B at market close on IPO day?16%

Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?14%

Kevin Warsh formally nominated as Fed Chair by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?63%

Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 6, 2026?2%

Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 2, 2026?1%

Oscars 2026: Best Makeup and Hairstyling Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Frankenstein win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?84%

Will Sinners win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?7%

Will The Smashing Machine win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?4%

GPT-6 released by…?

Balanced market conditions

Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?79%

Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?69%

Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?21%

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?

Strong consensus forming

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?81%

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?1%

Named storm forms before hurricane season?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (35% vs 31%)

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (40% vs 36%)