Today's Signal

>$1T

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet->$1T leads at 96% with >$1.2T close at 95%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~593 days
Total Volume
$1.6M
24h Change
+$43K
Active Markets
9
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
>$1T
#1 >$1T
96%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
>$1.2T
#2 >$1.2T
95%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
>$3T
>$3T✦ Surprise
16%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking spacex ipo closing market cap above ___ . Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $1.6M shows significant market interest with 317 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Dec 11, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2027
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

>$1T leads at 96%, with >$1.2T at 95% -- an unusually tight race -- only 1% separates them 2 years out. $1.6M has traded across 317 positions with 593 days until resolution.
$1.6M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. High volume on long-horizon events like this typically signals strong early conviction rather than reaction to recent news.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. >$1T's 96% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 96% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?96%-View market
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?95%-View market
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?93%-View market
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?90%-View market
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?81%-View market
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?66%-View market
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