Today's Signal

Anthropic

Updated: 19h ago

Traders currently favor Anthropic at 64%, with Google trailing.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~52 days
Total Volume
$5.6M
24h Change
+$145K
Active Markets
5
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Anthropic
#1 Anthropic
65%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
Google
#2 Google
24%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
xAI
xAI✦ Surprise
1%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking which company has best ai model end of june. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $5.6M shows significant market interest with 488 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard https://lmarena.ai/ when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Oct 10, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jun 30, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Anthropic leads at 65%, with Google at 24% -- a commanding 41-point lead 52 days out. $5.6M has traded across 488 positions with 52 days until resolution.
$5.6M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. Volume tends to accelerate as resolution approaches and traders adjust positions.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Anthropic's 65% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 65% chance of that outcome -- more likely than not. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Which company has best AI model end of June? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?65%-View market
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?24%-View market
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?7%-View market
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?1%-View market
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?1%-View market
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%-View market
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