Today's Signal
June 30
Updated: 12h ago
No clear favorite yet-June 30 leads at 80% with May 31 close at 74%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
Crowd vs Money
A PredictionCircle signalCrowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
#1 June 30
89%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
#2 May 31
69%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
May 14✦ Surprise
2%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
High
- Includes both YES and NO positions
- Not investment advice
- Visuals are comparative, not exact
Updates & analysis
- Key dates and timeline
- Expert takes and analysis
- Frequently asked questions
Timeline & Key Updates
Jan 4, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
May 14, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.
Analyst & Expert Takes
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is currently leading in Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
June 30 leads at 89%, with May 31 at 69% -- a commanding 20-point lead 27 days out. $2.1M has traded across 1,069 positions with 27 days until resolution.
How much money is behind these odds?
$2.1M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
How do I read these odds?
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. June 30's 89% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 89% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
Go deeper
Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.