Today's Signal

No IPO by December 31, 2026

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet — No IPO by December 31, 2026 leads at 27% with 1.5T+ close at 23%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~222 days
Total Volume
$1.7M
24h Change
+$44K
Active Markets
7
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
No IPO by December 31, 2026
#1 No IPO by December 31, 2026
27%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
1.5T+
#2 1.5T+
23%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
1.25T–1.5T
1.25T–1.5T✦ Surprise
12%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking openai ipo closing market cap. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $1.7M shows significant market interest with 1,689 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Sep 23, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

No IPO by December 31, 2026 leads at 27%, with 1.5T+ at 23% -- an unusually tight race -- only 4% separates them 7 months out. $1.7M has traded across 1,689 positions with 222 days until resolution.
$1.7M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. No IPO by December 31, 2026's 27% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 27% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
No IPO by December 31, 202627%$321KView market
1.5T+23%$105KView market
1T–1.25T14%$189KView market
1.25T–1.5T12%$503KView market
750B–1T11%$148KView market
500–750B8%$151KView market
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