Today's Signal

No IPO by December 31, 2026

Updated: 2 hours ago

The market strongly favors No IPO by December 31, 2026 at 74%, with a commanding lead over the field.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~44 days
Total Volume
$1.6M
24h Change
+$43K
Active Markets
7
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
No IPO by December 31, 2026
#1 No IPO by December 31, 2026
74%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
1.5T+
#2 1.5T+
8%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
1.25T–1.5T
1.25T–1.5T✦ Surprise
4%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking openai ipo closing market cap. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $1.6M shows significant market interest with 532 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Sep 23, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jun 30, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

No IPO by December 31, 2026 leads at 74%, with 1.5T+ at 8% -- a commanding 66-point lead 44 days out. $1.6M has traded across 532 positions with 44 days until resolution.
$1.6M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. Volume tends to accelerate as resolution approaches and traders adjust positions.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. No IPO by December 31, 2026's 74% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 74% chance of that outcome -- more likely than not. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?74%-View market
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?8%-View market
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?4%-View market
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?3%-View market
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?2%-View market
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?2%-View market
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