Today's Signal
No IPO by December 31, 2026
Updated: 2 hours ago
No clear favorite yet — No IPO by December 31, 2026 leads at 27% with 1.5T+ close at 23%, signaling a competitive race.
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Updates & analysis
- Key dates and timeline
- Expert takes and analysis
- Frequently asked questions
Timeline & Key Updates
Sep 23, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.
Analyst & Expert Takes
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is currently leading in OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap?
No IPO by December 31, 2026 leads at 27%, with 1.5T+ at 23% -- an unusually tight race -- only 4% separates them 7 months out. $1.7M has traded across 1,689 positions with 222 days until resolution.
How much money is behind these odds?
$1.7M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
How do I read these odds?
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. No IPO by December 31, 2026's 27% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 27% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
Go deeper
Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.