Today's Signal

Grok 4.20 released by April 20?

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet—Grok 4.20 released by April 20? leads at 97% with Grok 4.20 released by March 31? close at 91%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~0 days
Total Volume
$579K
24h Change
+$15.0K
Active Markets
4
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
Grok 4.20 released by April 20?
97%
#1 Grok 4.20 released by April 20?
👥 People watching
●●●●●
High
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Attention and money aligned
Grok 4.20 released by March 31?
91%
#2 Grok 4.20 released by March 31?
👥 People watching
●●●●●
High
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
Low
Quietly backed
Grok 4.20 released by February 14?
✦ Surprise
Grok 4.20 released by February 14?
👥 People watching
●●●●●
Low
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
Medium
Quietly backed
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking grok 4.20 released by.... Each team/candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on teams they believe will win, or NO on teams they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official game results and championship announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on team performance, injuries, playoff standings, odds movements, betting line shifts, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $579K shows significant market interest with 764 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 4.20 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public. Grok 4.20 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.20, or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4.1 similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1. Products labeled as Grok 4.12 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Dec 8, 2025
Market Launch
Market opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Feb 6, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

As of the latest prediction market data, Grok 4.20 released by April 20? leads with approximately 97% probability. These odds reflect market sentiment, not polls or official projections.
Each candidate market is a separate YES/NO contract. You can buy YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them. Market inefficiencies, fees, and the possibility of unlisted candidates mean probabilities rarely sum to exactly 100%.
Prices reflect current market belief based on where traders are putting their money. A 28% price means the market currently believes there's a 28% chance of that outcome. Use the Crowd vs Money signals to understand how attention differs from conviction.
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Related Markets

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Grok 4.20 released by April 20?97%$53KTrade
Grok 4.20 released by March 31?91%$3KTrade
Grok 4.20 released by February 28?48%$10KTrade
Grok 4.20 released by February 14?8%$11KTrade
Grok 4.20 released by December 31?0%$153KTrade
Grok 4.20 released by January 31?0%$164KTrade
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