Today's Signal

14–16

Updated: 1h ago

No clear favorite yet-14–16 leads at 29% with 11–13 close at 27%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~232 days
Total Volume
$1.3M
24h Change
+$34K
Active Markets
6
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
14–16
#1 14–16
29%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
11–13
#2 11–13
27%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks how many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026? (between Dec 31, 2025 and Dec 31, 2026). It matters because of material impact on outcomes and bragging rights and prediction accuracy. Market prices tend to move when there are primary sources and credible reporting, historical patterns and trends.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef. If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Dec 31, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

14–16 leads at 29%, with 11–13 at 27% -- an unusually tight race -- only 2% separates them 8 months out. $1.3M has traded across 1,214 positions with 232 days until resolution.
$1.3M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. 14–16's 29% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 29% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?29%-View market
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?27%-View market
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?21%-View market
Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?11%-View market
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?10%-View market
Will there be between 5 and 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?1%-View market
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