Today's Signal

there

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet—there leads at 30% with there close at 24%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
📊

Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~328 days
Total Volume
$550K
24h Change
+$14.3K
Active Markets
7
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
there
✦ Surprise
there
👥 People watching
●●●●●
High
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Attention and money aligned
there
24%
#2 there
👥 People watching
●●●●●
High
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
Medium
Quietly backed
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
📚

Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking how many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026. Each team/candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on teams they believe will win, or NO on teams they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official game results and championship announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on team performance, injuries, playoff standings, odds movements, betting line shifts, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $550K shows significant market interest with 260 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef. If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Feb 6, 2026
Market Launch
Market opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

💭
No analyst takes yet

Be the first to share your analysis on this market.

✍️ Submit Your Take

Frequently Asked Questions

As of the latest prediction market data, Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? leads with approximately 30% probability. These odds reflect market sentiment, not polls or official projections.
Each candidate market is a separate YES/NO contract. You can buy YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them. Market inefficiencies, fees, and the possibility of unlisted candidates mean probabilities rarely sum to exactly 100%.
Prices reflect current market belief based on where traders are putting their money. A 28% price means the market currently believes there's a 28% chance of that outcome. Use the Crowd vs Money signals to understand how attention differs from conviction.
📈

Related Markets

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?30%$107KTrade
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?24%$43KTrade
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?21%$64KTrade
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?12%$134KTrade
Will there be between 5 and 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?6%$42KTrade
Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?6%$29KTrade
Trade on Polymarket →View All Nominee Markets

Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

Trade on PolymarketCompare Platforms