Today's Signal

14–16

Updated: 2 hours ago

Traders currently favor 14–16 at 60%, with 11–13 trailing.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~85 days
Total Volume
$1.5M
24h Change
+$38K
Active Markets
7
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
14–16
#1 14–16
60%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
11–13
#2 11–13
21%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
17–19
17–19✦ Surprise
19%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking how many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can position themselves based on their expectations. The outcome will be determined based on official economic data releases and central bank announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on economic data releases, central bank communications, inflation reports, and employment figures. Trading volume of $1.5M shows significant market interest with 1,477 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef. If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Nov 9, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jan 8, 2027
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

14–16 leads at 60%, with 11–13 at 21% -- a commanding 39-point lead 85 days out. $1.5M has traded across 1,477 positions with 85 days until resolution.
$1.5M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. Volume tends to accelerate as resolution approaches and traders adjust positions.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. 14–16's 60% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 60% chance of that outcome -- more likely than not. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
14–1660%$189KView market
11–1321%$421KView market
17–1919%$293KView market
20+1%$70KView market
<50%$243KView market
8–100%$160KView market
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