Today's Signal

$X

Updated: 2h ago

$X is ahead at 37% with $STAR at 14%, but the race is far from settled.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~646 days
Total Volume
$2.8M
24h Change
+$73K
Active Markets
7
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Moneyshows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
$X
#1 $X
46%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
$STAR
#2 $STAR
14%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
$SEX
$SEX✦ Surprise
4%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks What will SpaceX's public ticker be? (between Dec 13, 2025 and Dec 31, 2027). It matters because of material impact on outcomes and revenue timing and adoption curve. Market prices tend to move when there are primary sources and credible reporting, roadmap signals.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the public ticker symbol used by SpaceX in an IPO (Initial Public Offering) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. An official announcement from SpaceX that they will IPO under a specific ticker symbol will be sufficient to resolve this market. If a ticker used by SpaceX in a qualifying IPO is a variant of a ticker symbol listed in this market group with additional letters to denote a specific class of shares, it will be considered to be that ticker (e.g. if SpaceX uses a ticker symbol of $MARS.A or $MARSA, this market will resolve to $MARS). If SpaceX announces an IPO with multiple tickers that are not considered the same ticker under the previous rule (i.e. $MARS.A and $MARS.B would be considered the same ticker), this market will remain open until SpaceX’s first day of public trading and will resolve according to the ticker symbolizing the security class with the greatest market capitalization. Market capitalization is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve according to the ticker symbol that comes first in alphabetical order. If SpaceX IPOs with a non-listed ticker, or does not IPO or officially announce an IPO and ticker symbol by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceX and the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. Note: In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will use the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will use the closing price on the next trading day for which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Dec 13, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2027
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

$X leads at 46%, with $STAR at 14% -- a commanding 32-point lead 2 years out. $2.8M has traded across 380 positions with 646 days until resolution.
$2.8M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. High volume on long-horizon events like this typically signals strong early conviction rather than reaction to recent news.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. $X's 46% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 46% chance of that outcome -- competitive but uncertain. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the What will SpaceX's public ticker be? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?46%-View market
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?14%-View market
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?6%-View market
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX?6%-View market
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?4%-View market
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS?3%-View market
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