Today's Signal

April 30, 2026

Updated: 2h ago

April 30, 2026 is ahead at 22% with March 31, 2026 at 4%, but the race is far from settled.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~-47 days
Total Volume
$2.9M
24h Change
+$75K
Active Markets
2
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Moneyshows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
April 30, 2026
#1 April 30, 2026
22%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
March 31, 2026
#2 March 31, 2026
1%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
High
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks Claude 5 released by…? (between Aug 7, 2025 and Dec 31, 2025). It matters because of material impact on outcomes and revenue timing and adoption curve. Market prices tend to move when there are primary sources and credible reporting, roadmap signals.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Aug 7, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Feb 6, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

April 30, 2026 leads at 22%, with March 31, 2026 at 1% -- a commanding 21-point lead resolving soon. $2.9M has traded across 260 positions with 0 days until resolution.
$2.9M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. April 30, 2026's 22% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 22% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Claude 5 released by…? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?22%-View market
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?1%-View market
Will Claude 5 be released by December 31?0%-View market
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?0%-View market
Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?0%-View market
Will Claude 5 be released by February 6, 2026?0%-View market
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