Today's Signal

1T+

Updated: 2h ago

The market strongly leans toward 1T+ at 91%, though outcomes remain uncertain.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~646 days
Total Volume
$2.5M
24h Change
+$66K
Active Markets
5
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Moneyshows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
1T+
#1 1T+
93%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
No IPO before 2028
#2 No IPO before 2028
5%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
900B–1T
900B–1T✦ Surprise
1%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (between Dec 6, 2025 and Dec 31, 2027). It matters because of material impact on outcomes. Market prices tend to move when there are primary sources and credible reporting, deadline proximity and updates.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Dec 6, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2027
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

1T+ leads at 93%, with No IPO before 2028 at 5% -- a commanding 88-point lead 2 years out. $2.5M has traded across 226 positions with 646 days until resolution.
$2.5M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. High volume on long-horizon events like this typically signals strong early conviction rather than reaction to recent news.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. 1T+'s 93% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 93% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?93%-View market
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?5%-View market
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day?1%-View market
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?1%-View market
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on IPO day?1%-View market
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on IPO day?0%-View market
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