Today's Signal

Anthropic

Updated: 2 hours ago

The market strongly favors Anthropic at 100%, with a commanding lead over the field.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~44 days
Total Volume
$1.6M
24h Change
+$41K
Active Markets
11
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Anthropic
#1 Anthropic
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
OpenAI
#2 OpenAI
11%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
xAI
xAI✦ Surprise
5%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking which companies will have a #1 ai model by june 30. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $1.6M shows significant market interest with 813 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard https://lmarena.ai/ for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Dec 22, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jun 30, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

Anthropic leads at 100%, with OpenAI at 11% -- a commanding 89-point lead 44 days out. $1.6M has traded across 813 positions with 44 days until resolution.
$1.6M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. Volume tends to accelerate as resolution approaches and traders adjust positions.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Anthropic's 100% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 100% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?100%-View market
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?11%-View market
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?5%-View market
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by June 30?5%-View market
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30?4%-View market
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?2%-View market
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