Today's Signal

Google

Updated: 2 hours ago

Traders currently favor Google at 67%, with no company trailing.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~-37 days
Total Volume
$319K
24h Change
+$8.3K
Active Markets
6
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
Google
67%
#1 Google
👥 People watching
●●●●●
High
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Attention and money aligned
no company
15%
#2 no company
👥 People watching
●●●●●
Low
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
Medium
Quietly backed
Anthropic
✦ Surprise
Anthropic
👥 People watching
●●●●●
Low
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Quietly backed
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking which company's ai will first hit 1500 on chatbot arena by june 30. Each team/candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on teams they believe will win, or NO on teams they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official game results and championship announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on team performance, injuries, playoff standings, odds movements, betting line shifts, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $319K shows significant market interest with 153 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the listed entity which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1500+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard https://lmarena.ai/ by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1500 Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None by June 30". If the first model to reach a 1500+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Nov 1, 2025
Market Launch
Market opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

💭
No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

As of the latest prediction market data, Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026? leads with approximately 67% probability. These odds reflect market sentiment, not polls or official projections.
Each candidate market is a separate YES/NO contract. You can buy YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them. Market inefficiencies, fees, and the possibility of unlisted candidates mean probabilities rarely sum to exactly 100%.
Prices reflect current market belief based on where traders are putting their money. A 28% price means the market currently believes there's a 28% chance of that outcome. Use the Crowd vs Money signals to understand how attention differs from conviction.
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Related Markets

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Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?67%$42KTrade
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Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?11%$21KTrade
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?4%$77KTrade
Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?4%$30KTrade
Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?1%$50KTrade
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