Today's Signal

December 31

Updated: 19h ago

No clear favorite yet-December 31 leads at 94% with September 30 close at 90%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~258 days
Total Volume
$1.5M
24h Change
+$39K
Active Markets
7
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
December 31
#1 December 31
95%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
September 30
#2 September 30
92%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
April 30
April 30✦ Surprise
1%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking spacex ipo by ___ . Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $1.5M shows significant market interest with 2,540 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If SpaceX is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jan 23, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

December 31 leads at 95%, with September 30 at 92% -- an unusually tight race -- only 3% separates them 9 months out. $1.5M has traded across 2,540 positions with 258 days until resolution.
$1.5M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. December 31's 95% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 95% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the SpaceX IPO by ___ ? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?95%-View market
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?92%-View market
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026?82%-View market
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?69%-View market
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?12%-View market
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?2%-View market
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