Today's Signal

December 31, 2026

Updated: 2 hours ago

The market strongly favors December 31, 2026 at 79%, with a commanding lead over the field.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~224 days
Total Volume
$30.7M
24h Change
+$799K
Active Markets
5
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
December 31, 2026
#1 December 31, 2026
79%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
June 30, 2026
#2 June 30, 2026
45%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
May 31, 2026
May 31, 2026✦ Surprise
8%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking microstrategy sells any bitcoin by ___ . Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can position themselves based on their expectations. The outcome will be determined based on official economic data releases and central bank announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on economic data releases, central bank communications, inflation reports, and employment figures. Trading volume of $30.7M shows significant market interest with 30,731 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from MSTR and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Dec 31, 2024
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jan 1, 2027
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

December 31, 2026 leads at 79%, with June 30, 2026 at 45% -- a commanding 34-point lead 7 months out. $30.7M has traded across 30,731 positions with 224 days until resolution.
$30.7M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. December 31, 2026's 79% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 79% chance of that outcome -- more likely than not. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
December 31, 202679%$1449KView market
June 30, 202645%$3699KView market
May 31, 20268%$4897KView market
December 31, 20250%$17976KView market
March 31, 20260%$2710KView market
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