Today's Signal

Fed’s lower bound reach 3.5% or lower

Updated: 2 hours ago

Traders currently favor Fed’s lower bound reach 3.5% or lower at 100%, with Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower trailing.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~328 days
Total Volume
$567K
24h Change
+$14.7K
Active Markets
21
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
Fed’s lower bound reach 3.5% or lower
100%
#1 Fed’s lower bound reach 3.5% or lower
👥 People watching
●●●●●
High
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
Low
Quietly backed
Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower
89%
#2 Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower
👥 People watching
●●●●●
High
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Attention and money aligned
Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower
✦ Surprise
Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower
👥 People watching
●●●●●
Low
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Quietly backed
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking what will fed rate hit before 2027. Each team/candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on teams they believe will win, or NO on teams they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official game results and championship announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on team performance, injuries, playoff standings, odds movements, betting line shifts, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $567K shows significant market interest with 4 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Feb 6, 2026
Market Launch
Market opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

💭
No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

As of the latest prediction market data, Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.5% or lower before 2027? leads with approximately 100% probability. These odds reflect market sentiment, not polls or official projections.
Each candidate market is a separate YES/NO contract. You can buy YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them. Market inefficiencies, fees, and the possibility of unlisted candidates mean probabilities rarely sum to exactly 100%.
Prices reflect current market belief based on where traders are putting their money. A 28% price means the market currently believes there's a 28% chance of that outcome. Use the Crowd vs Money signals to understand how attention differs from conviction.
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Related Markets

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.5% or lower before 2027?100%$9KTrade
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?89%$31KTrade
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?83%$168KTrade
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?46%$187KTrade
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?25%$118KTrade
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?17%$9KTrade
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