Today's Signal

No change

Updated: 5h ago

The market strongly leans toward No change at 93%, though outcomes remain uncertain.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~61 days
Total Volume
$8.4M
24h Change
+$218K
Active Markets
5
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
No change
#1 No change
93%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
25 bps decrease
#2 25 bps decrease
5%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
50+ bps decrease
50+ bps decrease✦ Surprise
1%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking fed decision in june. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can position themselves based on their expectations. The outcome will be determined based on official economic data releases and central bank announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on economic data releases, central bank communications, inflation reports, and employment figures. Trading volume of $8.4M shows significant market interest with 1,255 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Dec 10, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jun 17, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

No change leads at 93%, with 25 bps decrease at 5% -- a commanding 88-point lead 61 days out. $8.4M has traded across 1,255 positions with 61 days until resolution.
$8.4M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. Volume tends to accelerate as resolution approaches and traders adjust positions.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. No change's 93% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 93% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Fed Decision in June? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?93%-View market
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?5%-View market
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?2%-View market
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?1%-View market
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?1%-View market
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