Macro Prediction Markets·Fed Rates·2026
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
LIVE15% YES
↓ 0.2% (24h)·Last updated: 2 hours ago
As of May 5, 2026, the upper bound of the target federal funds rate leads at 15% odds with $1.4M positioned by 1,352 trades and resolves December 2026.
Market Snapshot
Resolution Date
Dec 2026
Total Volume
$1.4M
24h Volume
$35K
Active Traders
1,352
This market resolves YES if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026. Resolution based on official announcements and credible reporting from established news sources.
Data Visualization
WHERE THE MONEY FLOWS
15%
$203K staked
Market predicts YES
85%
$1.15M staked
Market predicts NO
Liquidity
$19K
24h Change
-0.2%
Average Trade
$1K
Total Volume
$1.35M
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Our Take
Updated Recently
The market has largely written this off. With probability this low, it would take a major catalyst to reverse the trend. Smart money is staying away.
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Market Confidence
LOW
Score: 30/100
$1.4M traded · Medium liquidity
Quick Stats
Days until resolution~218
Number of trades1,352
Total volume$1.4M
Liquidity$19K