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🔵 politics

Volume

$606.9M

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Strong consensus forming

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?30%

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?8%

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?6%

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Strong consensus forming

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?49%

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?49%

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?12%

Portugal Presidential Election

Balanced market conditions

Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?99%

Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?1%

Will Rui Moreira win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?1%

Which coalition will form the next Dutch government?

Strong consensus forming

Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?98%

archived Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA + D66?61%

archived Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + CDA + D66?56%

Thailand Legislative Election Winner

Strong consensus forming

Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?69%

Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?31%

Will Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?1%

Next French Presidential Election

Balanced market conditions

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?31%

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?14%

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?12%

Next President of Vietnam

Strong consensus forming

Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam?90%

Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam?7%

Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam?2%

Colombia Presidential Election

Balanced market conditions

Will Candidate M win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?50%

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?38%

Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?38%

Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner

Strong consensus forming

Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?55%

Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?34%

Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?9%

Trump out as President before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Trump out as President by March 31?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (6% vs 3%)

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Balanced market conditions

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House45%

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House36%

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House17%

Prime Minister of Japan after snap election?

Balanced market conditions

Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?99%

Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?1%

Will Yoshihiko Noda be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?1%

Ukraine election held by...?

Strong consensus forming

Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?24%

Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?8%

Ukraine election held by December 31, 2025?1%

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Balanced market conditions

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?71%

Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?22%

Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?6%

Turnout in 2025 Honduran General Election

Strong consensus forming

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?67%

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?16%

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 55%?10%

Portugal Presidential Election Margin of Victory: Second Round

Balanced market conditions

Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%?56%

Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%?23%

Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%?17%

Ukraine election called by...?

Strong consensus forming

Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?18%

Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026?5%

Ukraine election called in 2025?1%

Maine Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?67%

Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?33%

Will Dan Kleban be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?1%

French election called by...?

Strong consensus forming

French election called by June 30, 2026?12%

French election called by December 31?1%

French election called by September 15?1%

Japan General Election Winner?

Balanced market conditions

Will the Liberal Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?99%

Will the Democratic Party for the People win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?1%

Will Sanseitō win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?1%

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (38% vs 35%)

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Balanced market conditions

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?51%

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?32%

Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?4%

2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election62%

Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election26%

Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election6%

Which Parties will be part of next Government of the Netherlands?

Balanced market conditions

Will CDA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?99%

Will D66 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?99%

Will VVD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?98%

UK election called by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?8%

Will the next UK election be called by March 31?1%

Will the next UK election be called by December 31?1%

Bangladesh Parliamentary Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?86%

Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?14%

Will Gono Odhikar Parishad win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?1%

Will a new Cabinet of the Netherlands be sworn in by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will a new Cabinet of the Netherlands be sworn in by June 30, 2026?99%

Will a new Cabinet of the Netherlands be sworn in by March 31, 2026?99%

Will a new Cabinet of the Netherlands be sworn in by November 30, 2025?1%

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?64%

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?36%

Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?60%

Will Fidesz – Hungarian Civic Alliance (Fidesz) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?40%

Will the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?1%

Peru Presidential Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?45%

Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?24%

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?14%

Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?

Strong consensus forming

Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?48%

Venezuela election scheduled by March 31, 2026?6%

Venezuela election scheduled by January 31, 2026?1%

Colombia Senate Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?90%

Will CD win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?6%

Will AV (Green Alliance) win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?2%

ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?85%

Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?16%

Will ACA premium tax credits be extended and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?1%

Next Prime Minister of Thailand

Balanced market conditions

Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand?67%

Will Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut be the next prime minister of Thailand?25%

Will Yodchanan Wongsawat be the next prime minister of Thailand?7%

2nd place in first round of Texas Republican Senate Primary?

Strong consensus forming

Will John Cornyn come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?56%

Will Ken Paxton come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?33%

Will Wesley Hunt come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?9%

California Governor Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?45%

Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?27%

Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?8%

2026 South Korean Local Elections: Party Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?95%

Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?5%

Will the Progressive Party (PP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?1%

Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?83%

Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?17%

Will there be no US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?1%

Alaska Governor Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?28%

Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?25%

Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election?23%

Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?

Balanced market conditions

Will Liz Cheney announce a Presidential run before 2027?32%

Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?23%

Will Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run before 2027?23%

Rhineland-Palatinate Parliamentary Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?76%

Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?22%

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?2%

Turnout in 2026 Costa Rica Presidential Election First Round

Balanced market conditions

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 68% and 70%?97%

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 66% and 68%?3%

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be less than 55%?1%

Turnout in 2025 Honduran General Election (Smaller Brackets)

Strong consensus forming

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%?33%

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 59% and 60%?31%

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 61%?30%

Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election

Balanced market conditions

Will Herculano Armando Bequinsa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?29%

Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?7%

Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?6%

Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?

High FOMO activity - surge in new positions

Texas Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?77%

Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?23%

Will Emily Morgul be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?1%