Today's Signal

TISZA

Updated: 1h ago

Traders currently favor TISZA at 65%, with Fidesz-KDNP trailing.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~18 days
Total Volume
$24.7M
24h Change
+$641K
Active Markets
2
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Moneyshows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
TISZA
#1 TISZA
66%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Medium
Fidesz-KDNP
#2 Fidesz-KDNP
35%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking hungary parliamentary election winner. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $24.7M shows significant market interest with 1,154 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Dec 16, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Apr 12, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

TISZA leads at 66%, with Fidesz-KDNP at 35% -- a commanding 31-point lead 18 days out. $24.7M has traded across 1,154 positions with 18 days until resolution.
$24.7M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. TISZA's 66% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 66% chance of that outcome -- more likely than not. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?66%-View market
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?35%-View market
Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?0%-View market
Will LMP – Hungary’s Green Party (LMP) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?0%-View market
Will the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?0%-View market
Will the Momentum Movement (Momentum) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?0%-View market
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