Today's Signal

CDA

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet—CDA leads at 99% with VVD close at 99%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
📊

Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~-100 days
Total Volume
$734K
24h Change
+$19.1K
Active Markets
16
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
CDA
99%
#1 CDA
👥 People watching
●●●●●
High
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Attention and money aligned
VVD
99%
#2 VVD
👥 People watching
●●●●●
High
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Attention and money aligned
PVV
✦ Surprise
PVV
👥 People watching
●●●●●
Low
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Quietly backed
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
📚

Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking which parties will be part of next government of the netherlands. Each team/candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on teams they believe will win, or NO on teams they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official game results and championship announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on team performance, injuries, playoff standings, odds movements, betting line shifts, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $734K shows significant market interest with 133 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party is a part of the first Dutch government formed after the 2025 general election scheduled to take place October 29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister to the ruling government. Parties that merely provide external support (“gedoogsteun”) without holding ministerial positions will not qualify. This market may resolve once the first government is officially announced and sworn in by the monarch, with ministers appointed under "non-caretaker circumstances." If no government is formed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if another election is called without a government being formed this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcements from the governing coalition; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Aug 30, 2025
Market Launch
Market opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Oct 29, 2025
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

💭
No analyst takes yet

Be the first to share your analysis on this market.

✍️ Submit Your Take

Frequently Asked Questions

As of the latest prediction market data, Will CDA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands? leads with approximately 99% probability. These odds reflect market sentiment, not polls or official projections.
Each candidate market is a separate YES/NO contract. You can buy YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them. Market inefficiencies, fees, and the possibility of unlisted candidates mean probabilities rarely sum to exactly 100%.
Prices reflect current market belief based on where traders are putting their money. A 28% price means the market currently believes there's a 28% chance of that outcome. Use the Crowd vs Money signals to understand how attention differs from conviction.
📈

Related Markets

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will CDA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?99%$147KTrade
Will VVD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?99%$111KTrade
Will D66 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?99%$84KTrade
Will JA21 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?2%$39KTrade
Will SP be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?2%$11KTrade
Will PvdD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?2%$5KTrade
Trade on Polymarket →View All Nominee Markets

Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

Trade on PolymarketCompare Platforms