Today's Signal

CDU

Updated: 2 hours ago

The market strongly favors CDU at 75%, with a commanding lead over the field.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~44 days
Total Volume
$268K
24h Change
+$7.0K
Active Markets
3
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
CDU
75%
#1 CDU
👥 People watching
●●●●●
High
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Attention and money aligned
SPD
23%
#2 SPD
👥 People watching
●●●●●
Low
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Quietly backed
AfD
✦ Surprise
AfD
👥 People watching
●●●●●
Low
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Quietly backed
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking rhineland-palatinate parliamentary election winner. Each team/candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on teams they believe will win, or NO on teams they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official game results and championship announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on team performance, injuries, playoff standings, odds movements, betting line shifts, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $268K shows significant market interest with 67 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Rhineland-Palatinate are scheduled to take place in Rhineland-Palatinate on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Rhineland-Palatinate (Landtag) as a result of this election. If voting in the Rhineland-Palatinate election for the Landtag does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Rhineland-Palatinate (Landeswahlleiter Rheinland-Pfalz https://www.wahlen.rlp.de/landtagswahl/ergebnisse)
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jan 21, 2026
Market Launch
Market opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Mar 22, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

💭
No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

As of the latest prediction market data, Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? leads with approximately 75% probability. These odds reflect market sentiment, not polls or official projections.
Each candidate market is a separate YES/NO contract. You can buy YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them. Market inefficiencies, fees, and the possibility of unlisted candidates mean probabilities rarely sum to exactly 100%.
Prices reflect current market belief based on where traders are putting their money. A 28% price means the market currently believes there's a 28% chance of that outcome. Use the Crowd vs Money signals to understand how attention differs from conviction.
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Related Markets

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?75%$34KTrade
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?23%$35KTrade
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?2%$49KTrade
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?0%$23KTrade
Will FDP win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?0%$29KTrade
Will FW win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?0%$24KTrade
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