Today's Signal

Rafael López Aliaga

Updated: 2 hours ago

Rafael López Aliaga is ahead at 45% with Alfonso López Chau at 24%, but the race is far from settled.
0%
📊

Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~65 days
Total Volume
$445K
24h Change
+$11.6K
Active Markets
12
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
Rafael López Aliaga
45%
#1 Rafael López Aliaga
👥 People watching
●●●●●
High
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Attention and money aligned
Alfonso López Chau
24%
#2 Alfonso López Chau
👥 People watching
●●●●●
Medium
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Quietly backed
Mario Vizcarra
✦ Surprise
Mario Vizcarra
👥 People watching
●●●●●
Low
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Quietly backed
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
📚

Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking peru presidential election winner. Each team/candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on teams they believe will win, or NO on teams they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official game results and championship announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on team performance, injuries, playoff standings, odds movements, betting line shifts, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $445K shows significant market interest with 45 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Elections Jury of Peru (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones) (portal.jne.gob.pe/portal).
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Feb 6, 2026
Market Launch
Market opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Apr 12, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

💭
No analyst takes yet

Be the first to share your analysis on this market.

✍️ Submit Your Take

Frequently Asked Questions

As of the latest prediction market data, Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? leads with approximately 45% probability. These odds reflect market sentiment, not polls or official projections.
Each candidate market is a separate YES/NO contract. You can buy YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them. Market inefficiencies, fees, and the possibility of unlisted candidates mean probabilities rarely sum to exactly 100%.
Prices reflect current market belief based on where traders are putting their money. A 28% price means the market currently believes there's a 28% chance of that outcome. Use the Crowd vs Money signals to understand how attention differs from conviction.
📈

Related Markets

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?45%$46KTrade
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?24%$30KTrade
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?16%$16KTrade
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?4%$16KTrade
Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?4%$44KTrade
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?2%$10KTrade
Trade on Polymarket →View All Nominee Markets

Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

Trade on PolymarketCompare Platforms