Today's Signal

Rafael López Aliaga

Updated: 2h ago

Rafael López Aliaga is ahead at 40% with Keiko Fujimori at 16%, but the race is far from settled.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~18 days
Total Volume
$3.4M
24h Change
+$88K
Active Markets
12
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Moneyshows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Rafael López Aliaga
#1 Rafael López Aliaga
36%
Widely followed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Keiko Fujimori
#2 Keiko Fujimori
17%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Jorge Nieto
Jorge Nieto✦ Surprise
11%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks Peru Presidential Election Winner (between Dec 16, 2025 and Apr 12, 2026). It matters because of material impact on outcomes. Market prices tend to move when there are primary sources and credible reporting, deadline proximity and updates.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/ and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Dec 16, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Apr 12, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Rafael López Aliaga leads at 36%, with Keiko Fujimori at 17% -- a 19-point lead 18 days out. $3.4M has traded across 409 positions with 18 days until resolution.
$3.4M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Rafael López Aliaga's 36% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 36% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Peru Presidential Election Winner event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?36%-View market
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?17%-View market
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?16%-View market
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?11%-View market
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?6%-View market
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?5%-View market
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