Who is currently leading in 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?

NO holds at 100% 3 months out. $531K has traded, suggesting overwhelming conviction from the market with 101 days remaining.

How much money is behind these odds?

$531K total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.

How do I read these odds?

This is a binary YES/NO market. NO's 100% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 100% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.

Macro Prediction Markets

Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?

LIVE

0% YES

↑ 0.0% (24h)·Last updated: 2 hours ago

As of September 21, 2026, 2026 leads at 0% odds with $531K positioned by 531 trades and resolves December 2026.

Market Snapshot

Resolution Date

Dec 2026

Total Volume

$531K

Status

Live

Winner / Leader

No (100%)

This market resolves YES if 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record.

Data Visualization

WHERE THE MONEY FLOWS

$0 staked

Market predicts YES

100%

$531K staked

Market predicts NO

Liquidity

$67K

24h Change

+0.0%

Average Trade

$1K

Total Volume

$531K

💭

Our Take

Updated Recently

Market strongly favors NO at 100% odds. As of 9/21/2026, this market has $531K traded and 531 traders.

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Market Confidence

LOW

Score: 24/100

$531K traded · Medium liquidity

WHERE THE MONEY FLOWS

Our Take

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